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We finally get to look at the definition of the SI model as the simplest example with the key BSI/N term. We demonstrate the source of the exponential and the no escape features of the 'standard' model. Perfectly designed for initiating scare tactics in pandemics, yet somehow these have been the officially approved models since long before Covid-19. Bad science gone rogue. PDF https://peerlessreads.s3.us-east-2.am...
Transcript by google (Sorry)
epidemiology in the doc part 5 let's look at their model for real SAR NSE ir aren't difficult models to understand they just look scary because they're defined by several equations the normal distribution is in fact scarier it's formula really is difficult to understand note two sensors we use only government data if you have a problem with the results speak to the government so we left off when we'd invented a system or set of differential equations for our cookie model the s by DT equals minus Fe we also have de by DT equals zero and DF by DT equals zero what de by DT equals zero the number of cookies people eat per day doesn't change DF by DT equals zero the number of family members doesn't change over time so DS by DT equals minus Fe de by DT equals zero DF by DT equals zero a very simple model and all it says is your family eats 24 equals 4 times 6 cookies a day now wouldn't it have been simpler just to say that yes it would and when did it been simpler for Ferguson to say everyone gets infected 20% serious enough to be cases and 1% died yes it would but someone might actually have stood up and said everyone how could it be everyone are you sure and we wouldn't be in lockdown but because the model said it must be true even though that's all the model says every time don't believe me let's take a look here's the si model from Ida morgue great site shame about the content not their fault just the entire epidemiology z-- by now this should be starting to look familiar but boy before you freak out for no reason honest let's put it into text and simplify it their version on the left my version below DS by DT equals minus psi over n di by DT equals psi over N and we can ignore the variant is the same thing rephrased now what's the first thing you notice about this the s by DT equals minus psi over N di by DT equals plus psi over n it's the same thing on the right just with a minus sign so it's really d s by DT equals minus a and di by DT equals a where a is something now what's on the left the s by DT difference insusceptible a kay uninfected per difference in unit time aka how many people are no longer susceptible today because they got infected why couldn't they just say that well di by DT difference in infected per difference in unit time aka how many people got infected today yeah the language sucks yeah seriously mass is the most misunderstood world and all because we use shorthand is like not understanding Russian or Greek or Chinese because they use funny letters or symbols recognise that you eat there all the time let me take it out of Cyrillic restaurant how about now there are two sins of maths education memorising a waste of time almost and confusing and shorthand failing to emphasise that that's all it is you think mathematically all the time you just never learned the shorthand in most cases what happens if you're forced to memorise something and it is meaningless and you can't remember it it puts you off make you think it's not worth it or not fun Einstein rode a light beam tell me that's not fun and he changed the world forever imagination is true maths the rest is just language and experience now we had D s by DT because minus a and di by DT equals a which says what's acceptable successful susceptible susceptible Jesus whatever goes down and infected goes up that's it that's their model susceptible susceptible weather goes down in fact it goes up no really but how does it go down well glass hopper by BSI each time but what is BSI master its BS with an eyeglass hopper and never a truer word was spoken b or bell beta is spread what percentage of susceptible to take and call effectively basically be yeah that works it's just a number akin to the R nought has been the biggest source of messed up non science nonsense in this whole tragedy so sorry s is how many are left the doomed victims yet to be infected and they are doomed as we'll see because no one escapes the virus yep absolutely true the model say so I is how many are infected and n is the total population so B is fixed n is fixed so they're constant and let's call them capitals and leave them as such s changes that I changes so they're variable and we'll make them lowercase s and I to indicate that in the SI model you're either s susceptible or I infected so N equals s plus I you're either susceptible or infected and in our lower case for variables that's N equals s plus I your big deal I know what does this be si over n look like well let's forget B for a moment a look at the dynamics of this you've got s the group with s people left uninfected to start with s equals n or n minus 1 because someone has to be infected else it's a divine infection and the one that I the one infected the chosen one and hell yes religion is a virus fate News's a virus all news is a virus we talk of thing going things came viral all the time laughter is contagious so is fear the one eye goes round high-five-ing their mates getting close to tell them a story and all the while unseen unheard hordes of little micro aliens are transferring to their unwitting victims the susceptible and three of the hundreds of people that and got close to get infected and what happened to all those others did they reject the virus more on that and on so s equals hundred thousand say or 99999 now because we have one infected with n equals a hundred thousand and the one infects three out of hundreds doesn't sound like much but oh my god that's trembling every day and covid 19 only doubles every five days per Ferguson to start with sort of if it was exponential so one person I had access to 99999 susceptible s and managed to infect three or put another way one one hundred thousandth of the population the infected ones had access to 99,999 susceptible s and had a chance to infect them and infected three one over a hundred thousand equals 1 over N equals I over n 99,999 susceptible equals s the susceptible so I over N of the population had a chance to infect s susceptible if twice that number had a chance then you'd expect twice the number of infected so it's obviously multiplicative I over N times s or is over N or s I over N Wow family of four six cookies are they each TS by DT equals minus F equals minus four times six equals -24 d s by DT equals minus psi over N equals one N of the population trying to catch SS K P so far and catching three of them one over n times s equals s I over N so were most of the way there and that's all it is now what would 1 over n times s aka si over N actually work out to be 1 over N equals 1 100,000th times s 999 999 but seriously 500,000 so 1 over a hundred thousand times 100,000 equals one actually nought point nine nine nine nine nine like I said one but they actually caught three so we need to multiply that by three easy add a bigger constant of three be for bigger equals three now we have a formula that one bugger chased 99999 beggars and begorrah the basset call three B's something's beings weak but whatever N equals 100,000 I equals 1 s equals 9 9 9 9 9 P equals 3 psi over N equals 3 times 1 times 9 9 9 9 9 I've at 100,000 equals 3 and sure you figure out how to catch two point nine nine nine nine nine seven or whatever knock yourself out now notice how many that person could catch was determined by observation long before it became a model and you could have just said hey there cash three which of course is what all the fuss about R nought is about which conveniently forgot that R nought was only a first number until months into the infection I now they more actually remember that it changes marvellous a bit like false means like exponential a shame they didn't remember that on or it's good for the first day only or first cycle or first whatever you like it was never exponential and add R naught to the lie propagator toolkit it doesn't matter if you could use a chainsaw responsibly or if you could use a knife responsibly to save a life if there are plenty of people out there in power in charge of your lives who have no interest in using chainsaws and knives power and the media responsibly get rid of chainsaws and knives or get rid of politicians and big pharma easy decision we still have trees that need trimming we also have politicians in big farmer that need trimming hey that gives me an idea so yes on day one given the I the one the infected one can infect three people by divine right I go ahead and lo three were infected and on day two we the infected ones now four can infect three people by divine right so we go ahead and load 12 were infected and so it goes on the mother of all exponential viruses and guess what because there's so many people in our population we don't have to slow down for ages 12 infected last time plus we the infected that 16 so we can go forth and in fact three times 16 equals 48 plus ask that 64 and we go forth and in fact three times 64 equals under 92 plus our stars 256 and notice although there be bigger bugger factor was 3 were actually going up in total by four each time three new plus us the infected so this really is the mother of all infected now let's look at this and sure by now you get that it really is really really exponential right no need even to chart that but here we have the essence of all sis IR s ie IR s is you lose immunity not a woman's birth virus models the s by DT because minus psi over and how many will get today you lose di by DT equals B si over and how many will get today we win it's in all of them its call to the models and it says we're coming for you all of you just to confirm that here's that we've got you drop in susceptibility for the core models the s by DT equals in Si minus psi over N in Si R minus psi over N in Si Rd minus psi over N in se IR minus psi over n so the core of a model in each of these cases is identical - psi I over N once you've been got you can be infected recover the infected recovered deceased exposed infectious recovered but the bottom line this week are you the virus got you and in the same numbers and at the same rate psi over N or just BSI over n how many of you got so we really want to look at that expression first rule of mathematics simplify what do we have with psi over N well it's four characters - which are constant leaving two variables s and I or s and I if I can persuade PowerPoint to leave the case alone can we get that down to one sure in the SI model you're either susceptible not infected yet or infected so indulge me with a little sin simple algebra for a second n equals s plus I so I equals n minus a so BS i Iran is also be s times and minus s over N and BS n months our n is be a Sun over n minus B SS over N equals B s minus B s as so r n now B is just a constant so we can remember we have it but for simplicity in thinking about the order or size of this we can just call it one for the moment so we've got s minus s times s over N Ferguson's be if spread is equal to a power rate was doubling every five days or 1.15 so it's not a big deal and it's only a scaling factor whatever the series s is under B equals 1 multiplied by B other to get the second series trivial so the s by DT the new cases per day new in fact it's strictly lost to the safe actually not so safe as susceptibility the s by DT because minus psi over N so we want to close look at this BSI over n creature which simplifies as s minus s times s over n now don't fade on me this is simple stuff just forget it's maths it's really common sense but yeah we'll be using our shorthand what are we looking for well there are several things of interest we've seen it looks and essentially is exponential on the charts why is that question two is infection inevitable if the answer to question two is yes then it shows that we weren't wrong to say this is absurd even if you're in a hermetically sealed box on oxygen it will still get you if there's a ring of fire around the only infected person it will get you there's no escape S minus s to the S minus or sorry times s over N so what can we observe first can it ever be negative s isn't it's a subset of N and n is by coincidence or not also an N and natural number 0 1 2 3 etc non-negative now s over N what about that well it's less than or equal to 1 think about you can't have negative susceptibility like you can't have negative numbers of people and there are more people in the population than there are in the population so s is less than equal to n what if s equals n what does that mean it means you've got zero infected what happens then s - s cetera says such that R equals zero or N equals zero so in that case s equals n I equals zero no infected in DS by DT equals minus psi over N equals BN 0 over N equals zero ie susceptibility don't change no one gets the disease because there's no one to get it from makes sense we've done that case in now we can focus on s less than n there are some infected I what does some look like let's look at the extremes I equals 1 and s equals 1 and s would be 999 999 and I would be 99 999 in those cases the first is of the start one person infected the second is at the end one person left again s minus s to the s over sorry times s over N which simplifies to s into 1 minus s over N looks like 99999 times 1 minus 99 over 100,000 pretty damn close to 99 99 times 1 minus 1 so it's going to be close to 0 well it is close to 0 but it's not 0 in fact it's 1 so one infected person has now one infected as I'm sorry has now infected one other infected person which is doubling in one day so pretty aggressive in fact if we look at the chart and the figures so yes very aggressive and rounded to two decimal places that line goes up pretty much straight up new infected doubling every day and totally infected doubling every day and only nudges off to point zero zero F on day nine f is the ratio factor of new cases today versus new cases in fated yesterday and it looks a lot like two doubling with total infected also doubling until the virus is well established and at day ten it nudges below 2.00 but by now it's only seven days away from peak twenty five came infected per day a quarter of the population in a single day and at peak is still growing or grew at twenty four percent more cases on that day than the day previous then it plummets finally the scarcity of new susceptible's to try saying that when you're pissed susceptible's begins to buy but it's scarcely so-to-speak matters half the population is already infected the next day it will be three-quarters the day after that ninety three percent and the day after that ninety nine percent three weeks and you're down to two point seven nine hiding in cellars and the next day they're gone - it's truly a biblical plague a hand of God sweeping through every corner of the nation no one escapes and that's the core term BSI over and in every model and yes it was clearly exponential until it didn't matter anymore a few very low order decimal places off pure exponential thank god that's nothing like a real virus but hey firstly I need to apologise I realised looking at my work table that while I and di by DT were clearly exponential that we're not seeing why that is from the DS by DT so maybe I need to switch over to di by DT the other thing though is q2 can anyone escape put another way what does it take for BSI over n to be zero at which point there are no new susceptible stay can sir any left escape now bear in mind we've been looking at the SI model where there's no recovery which is deemed to be immune l so get back to s and s would be increased PSI of rain in the SAR model depends on I and I reduces a people recover so we need to look at that separately one thing at a time does psi ever hit zero or when does it hit zero B is a constant if it was a zero the disease would never spread so trivial fine done not an issue clearly doesn't apply to covert 19's is one hundred thousand minus one equals ninety nine nine nine nine on day zero and when it hits zero no one has escaped so not very helpful I equals zero well it started at one and there's no recovery certain over zero so no four be a sore eyes zero there are trivial cases no spread or no infected or they are the no escape case s equals zero BS and I can't be negative negative spread would be negative people infected absurd so they're all positive so BSI over N is positive all the way up until finally s equals zero and we're back to no escape so the BSI of rennes term in the SI model says there's no escape and it's exponential till it's so well established you'll be over in a few days so how can we see that it's exponential let's take a look at it from the eye perspective my bad di by DT equals BSI over n same thing then but positive and this time we're going to simplify 4i s equals n minus I ignore be set to one for convenience and it's n minus 1 into I over n sorry n minus I into I minus over N so new infected equals n minus I into I over N which looks like ni o n minus I I over N or I minus I I over N or I - well I in turn I over N or I times 1 minus 1 over n sorry I over N now this is rather easier to see how it's exponential when I is small I over N is basically 0 close enough to say decimal places so we're basically looking at I new cases a day so I cases gets I new cases doubling yeah that's pretty exponential and until I over end gets big enough to bite and take a chunk out of the new cases it's going to keep looking exponential now it's never truly pure exponential if we shout out to five DP we can see it it's never exactly 2 as a factor but you can also see by adding a pure exponential red line you can't even see the impure exponential of the SI model as it's hidden behind the pure exponential right the way to just before peak a bit like then to start curling over a bit so there you have the two big lies or features of the SI model that contagion is exponential and mobile escapes but that's not the most appropriate model for over 19 which with the sei our model out past the SI ion is IR model but we've already seen the exponential and nobody escapes that emerge in the sei our model so we know we're going to be dealing with something very similar and this is illustrated just where that fiction comes from according to ID molto org whose website is a model of clarity and excellent herpes is an example appropriate CSI model so simple question of ID model org and epidemiologists if the sei model models herpes and you put in our population and it grows exponentially and no one escapes how come we didn't all have herpes a long time ago the troll critics will say you're misusing the model the trolls just say snidely but hey that's why we're here we're not the ones who took this no one escapes is exponential and used it to scare a population into lockdown and giving up democracy if you want to lecture anybody on the proper use of this model if there can be such I'm finding so many flaws I doubt it more and on then by all means go and convince the original scientists and the four hundred million people of the US UK and Canada for now we'll leave it there you've seen how the model naturally generates an exponential curved the only curls over right at the last minute just like gates said it doesn't mean he doesn't have an agenda it just means that he was quoting mainstream epidemiology when he said straight up and my Bend until the majority are infected he's still in dock or under grave suspicion ditto Ferguson but now also our epidemiologists from putting they're way behind and Trust in bad models that don't reflect reality there aren't any new flaws from this slide per se rather we've shown you the algebraic justification for what for what was obvious the exponential and nobody escapes flaws,
I'm Andrew made there a six year old British and financial technologist husband biker pilot healer whatever feel free to get in touch Andrew a Mather @ Peerless reads
