#WakeUp
#ItsAllFake
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We start to go deep (for the layman) but first, we need to debunk the myth that math is hard... a little bit. So before we look at the SIR model per se, we first show how to translate a simple everyday model into math language. PDF https://peerlessreads.s3.us-east-2.am...
Transcript by google (Sorry)
epidemiology in the doc part 4 let's look at their model SAR and sei are aren't difficult models to understand they just look scary because they're defined by several equations the normal distribution is in fact scarier it's formula really is difficult to understand no two sensors we use only government data if you have a problem with the results speak to the government I received a comment on part one that really rocked my world in both senses of that phrase are you surprised that so many epidemiologists ignore farce law I realise it's a hundred eighty years old but is it that difficult to acknowledge something based on data WJ Lundy I'd never heard of farce law so I went to wiki and looked it up William Farr CB 30 number 8007 da da da was a British epidemiologist regarded as one of the founders of medical statistics it's not a long piece and this is a key quote if the latent cause of epidemics cannot be discovered the mode in which it operates may be investigated the laws of its action may be determined by observation as well as the circumstances in which epidemics arise or by which they may be controlled and he showed that during the smallpox epidemic a plot of the number of deaths per quarter followed a roughly bell-shaped or normal curve and that recent epidemics of other diseases had followed a similar pattern the laws of its action may be determined by observation and a plot of the number of deaths per quarter followed a roughly bell-shaped or normal curve here we are confronted with models which make no sense which massively exaggerate the real-world experience and all we've done is look and observe that they look normal but trolls and critics say it's not official which should be the least of the issues if it's that obvious that it's occurring and here we are finding that we're doing no more than a founding epidemiologist founder of medical statistics did 200 years ago when did common sense scientific method indeed go out of the window look at what's occurring come up with a hypothesis and see if it fits instead it's oh this model looks nice never mind the real world let's stick with this model I can only trust hope and pray that airliners are not built using the same scientific method adopted by epidemiologists oh don't worry about fuel in the real world just chuck a pint in each wing should you get around the world at 25 times the speed of sound no problem what was that crashing noise so thank you double J Lundy every comment keeps me sane else I'd be sat here knowing they're seeing this only I'd have done far less and just been far more stark despairing and angry it's just that here we are debunking epidemiology and it isn't fun it's not a thrill it's deeply depressing science is supposed to be the anchor of progress not the lead wait the sinks democracy and traps us in our homes the SI our sei arm family models maybe mathematical but they're not science or rather their uses in science but fantasy and a very dangerous and harmful fantasy if you want to believe that the moment of iris touches a human then the infection of every human in the population is inevitable fine it's a free world if you're the scientists advising the government and you say that and they believe you that's not so fine that's our lives you're now playing with and yet that's precisely what's happened so let's look at the SR model as a simpler form than the sei R and we can then add the e for exposed and in fact let's take a look at the simplest model si for susceptible and infected and work up from there as always I get that some people think they're not good at maths and numbers but I assure you you have all the mental skills necessary to understand this once you get past the shorthand and I'm not immune I didn't look at these models beyond seeing their output and reading their description also because of their complex series of equations until I realised hang on this is just daily cases versus total cases so let's understand first and then do shorthand later so inventing an example you have a jar of cookies a family of four and you want to know how long your cookies will last so you can plan the shopping trip and your schedule won't be overwhelmed crisis stuff huh but yeah take out the drama it's all the same stuff now how would you do that in real life count the cookies estimate how many your family eats in a day divide the number of cookies by the number you eat in a day and hey presto starting to sound familiar why bother with a complicated way of looking at it when you've got a much simpler way that's perfectly good enough so count the cookies a hundred what's your family scoffing 25 a day cookies / cookies per day equals a hundred over 25 equals four days that's it not rocket science now let's introduce you to the way that epidemiologists would do it using differentials and yes guess what you're already familiar with these what do we call the change of distance over time speed what we call the change of speed over time acceleration to the word speed and acceleration freak you out what is the change of distance it is the difference D of distance capital D and believe it or not we actually use s god knows why delta d for short what is the time period or difference in time DT or delta T for short what is miles per hour mph freaked you out miles per hour miles over hours 30 miles in two hours 30 over two equals 15 miles per hour m over H aka mph it's just notation and expressing it as differences D difference in distance equals 30 miles D difference in time equals two hours d difference in distance equals 30 Mars D difference in time equals two hours we can rewrite as D difference in miles equals 30 D difference in hours equals two so miles per hour equals 30 divided by 2 DM per D H equals 30 over 2 it's just notation DM / d H equals 30 over 2 DM / D H equals 30 over 2 equals 15 mph equals 30 over 2 equals 15 notation can mass get complicated sure so can computer programming or raising a child or predicting who's gonna win the Super Bowl or deciding what stocks to buy but some things aren't complicated never trust a politician always check what a scientist claims trust your instinct don't do what someone says just because they tell you to how did these basic rules of life get utterly disregarded because when you trigger someone's fear response they quite literally unknown thinking and when 90% of people are pack animals not independent and observers they're already conditioned to do what the pack alpha says so if you're wondering why you can't get through to people it's because they're not wired like you 99 percent of you at least trolls are them not you you're an independent observer they're pack animals that's why they get so angry when you challenge their view you're challenging their pack leader their pack they don't even know that's what they are because we're all brought up on democracy and the land of the free no it's the land of the pack and the pack leader tells the pack what to think and every four years the illusion of choice is provided red or blue this time and then the red or blue leader tells them what to think maybe when it's not a life-threatening issue there's some illusion of Independence but the moment the pack is threatened WHAM DNA kicks in and you find out in a split second if you're an independent observer or a pack animal 99% odds are you're an independent observer of those liking and commenting at least so yes neither the situation nor the maths is hard not at all normal distributions actually the mass behind them are far harder their complex formula these aren't it's just arithmetic seriously and even I was scared off by the shorthand freaky huh well not anymore so very quickly let's invent a model of our own cookies pack of 125 a day four days done but far too easy let's model it so he can justify you going out shopping when you should be putting up the new shelves or reading to the kids what have we got well we've got our stock of cookies so there's an S convenient what's going to change and why well the stock of cookies is going to go down go figure no really it is so go down is that increasing or decreasing down negative so we know it's going to be stock is negative as our sanity check stock going down so really it's change in stock is going to be negative so is that changing stock depending what color you're wearing or changing the stock based on what TV channel you're watching maybe you could do those but no we're going to do the obvious change in stock over time so the difference in stock over difference in time and we'll measure or count the differences in units of cookies number of cookies or just cookies and in units of time and we'll go with days for convenience that's a really important concept by the way which I've never really paid attention to but it's about the dimensions of your result miles-per-hour makes sense we can go a distance and it takes time so how much distance over how much time sensible which of these make sense cars per plant the green kind or cars per plant the factory same words but only one of those realistically has any bearing on the real world that could be anything green fly purple on the green kind green five green fly per plant factory now which makes sense or finally workers per plant the green kind workers per plant factory now which makes sense the first two had only one realistically that made sense and who would care about the one that made sense cars per plant factory would be important perhaps to someone planning parking cars for plant green kind you are not so much green five per plant green kind very important to garden as I presume and of great interest to us school where the school salads were infested yep private education huh privileged green fly per plant factory maybe I guess not really workers per plant green Welsh or drug dealers farmers easy to see how that could apply workers per plant factory also sure any boss manager CEO investor the planting question is different so they're different quantities being measured but sure it could make sense to measure them so cookies per hour make sense as those cookies per day or cookies per week they're all quantity over time and we used to things like that cookies per sweater cookies for show cookies per water cookies per person uh-huh cookies per sweater cookies per water you are though how many cookies before I need a drink of water Mia that could work cookies per show cookies per person sure we do that kind of calculation all the time you see you are a mass expert a scientific expert a skilled analyst because you do this stuff all the time and you're so expert most of the time you don't even need a calculator or a spreadsheet hey grab another pack we could get thirsty excellent analysis good call and if the US or UK or Canadian populations hadn't been scared by fight or flight and instantly transformed into blind pack mode pac-man good name for a game someone should do something like that that level of testing is all that would have been needed 3085 Destin whoo nor point two percent death risk under 40 done so the difference in stock of cookies per unit time in days okay a day de-essing cookies DT in days cookies per day do you think you could estimate how many cookies your family goes through in a day is that too much I didn't think so so the stock of cookies goes down by what 24 a day DS by DT equals minus 24 gosh how tough was that yep it really is that simple D s by DT equals minus 24 now why did the cookies go down 24 well is it always 24 yeah not really about an average I'd say 24 see you're already a statistician maybe 20 maybe 28 unlikely to be less than 16 or more than 32 I'd call that normal and you know normal distributions seriously just because we can use shorthand and have some guides as to how to work things out so do you you have a supercomputer in your head more powerful than any conceivable computer because it's not in your head but that's another story even the one in your head dwarfs the capacity of any array of computers or quantum computer that's going to be around for a very long time which makes it scary that it's so easily switched off but hey so Delta stock changes stock over Delta time change in time DS by DT equals 24 actually minus 24 but don't let me forget but why 24 well there's four of you roll with it and eat you eat six cookies a day yeah I know it's really like 20 for each well for me at least so how do we express that man I need a cookie mom passed me a cookie died stop mocking the cookies no not precisely what I had in mind there's four of you so f family equals four it could be people equals four or whatever letter is convenient and you eat each exactly six a day on average in our tidy little epidemiological world which is really messed up as yet another issue revealed itself yesterday and another this morning but hey so family equals four and each person eats six cookies per day so we already have that Delta cookies per Delta day equals DC by DT equals six difference in cookies per unit time here a day so that's our first difference rule and it covers one person's rate of eating cookies so our difference rule is expressed as an equation is Delta cookies by delta T equals six and all it says is that someone eat six cookies a day or six CPD it's good to know and the key thing is and I hope I've nailed it is that you'll never be scared of a weird equation again so me just cause it's DS by DT equals gobbledegook it's just aha so how does the S something change over time got it cases per day new cases seeder and we've been dealing with that for two months now and DC by DT equals CN don't fold on me now DC by DT equal CN the difference in cases per unit time is the new cases so total cases equals yesterday's total cases plus today's new cases you knew that but did the equation freak you out it's just shorthand if in doubt think it out distance speed acceleration speed equals change in distance over time acceleration equals change in speed over time speed V equals Delta distance D s over delta T and yes speed is V distance is s up but you get the idea distance s DS by DT equals speed difference in distance over difference in time DV by DT equals acceleration difference in velocity over difference in time shorthand so DS by DT equals -24 why because D s by DT equals minus Fe and web backing cookie land D s by DT the stock of cookies over the TOC of time equals minus f e family of 418 6 each per day that's the stock of cookies going down by 4 by 6 equals 24 and going down means it's - so DS by DT equals minus Fe equals minus 4 times 6 equals minus 24 congratulations you just invented your first statistical model now go show it to a politician and get us out of lockdown and hey that'll do for now next time we'll actually start to look at their versions the ones that have done so much damage I'm Andrew hey there are 60 year old Brit mathematician financier technologist husband biker pilot healer whatever feel free to get in touch Andrew a Mather
