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We cover five fatal flaws of the SIR, SEIR models, any one of which should have stopped them EVER being used for 'serious science'. This is snake oil being sold as science, and the astonishing thing is that an entire scientific industry has been built up around them. PDF https://peerlessreads.s3.us-east-2.am...
Google transcript (Sorry)
epidemiology in the doc par-three their core model is so very wrong a Cir is a core epidemiology model appropriate to covert 19 as it has the e element for exposed to handle viruses with an incubation period that is the only thing it has going for it note two sensors we use only government data if you have a problem with the results speak to the government we've identified two core problems actually three with the SAR sei are models being you put in the total population that's the number of people infected number two they get infected exponentially utterly contradicted by real-world experience and by eg logistic population growth another epidemic model we've also identified a third problem massively ironic and damning in the light of social distancing and lockdown the model has no concept of distance the rest of the susceptible population is right there available to be infected that is absurd so to use a model that relies on that is equally absurd there hey no problem we need escape and emic and a model that ignores reality as well as the first two ignoring reality fits the bill perfectly in fact whatever arcane value epidemiologists think they've got out of the SAR sei our family of models they were working with a ticking time bomb just waiting for someone to realise that it was the perfect unrealistic model to create an artificial scare and someone finally noticed and took advantage the bitter irony of the complete absence of distance in the sei sorry si R sei R models is of course that distancing is at the core of the government policy social distancing so the virus can't spread as fast in theory lockdown even more draconian social distancing which according to the government data has utterly failed and yet these people supposedly intelligent politicians and scientists ever notice that they call scare me scare you model has zero referenced a distance and raced across the entire UK USA and globe with impunity is that constructive ignorance choosing to not notice criminal harm or just ignorance not fit to rule criminal negligence and an entire world of epidemiologists use this and write about it and nobody notices a damn thing be entirely clear these models have been around a long time they were not invented to make covid 19 look scary they have been presumed by epidemiologists to be valid they've been modelled extensively in software and nobody noticed they were nonsense it is the biggest failure of the scientific method that I can imagine and we are paying the price what as someone pointed out to me is the essence of the scientific model science is not about building a body of known facts it is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality check thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good Sir Terry Pratchett the science of Discworld the citation I found didn't include the sir but hey he is and he's a decent guy seems so our pleasure to include that so Terry a reality check absolutely what was the first thing we declared in our March 24th presentation first as in one of our original points which still holds true today two things in fact as I've already highlighted in earlier parts of this video reality check 30 85 dead in whom a population 59 million fine do whatever they did and that's 3441 or whatever for the UK reality check March 22 over in Korea 104 dead population 51 million for Christ's sake and they didn't lock down as they pointed out they respected their citizens too much for that reality check original China CDC figures aged 10 to 39 nought point two percent risk of death forty plus nine point four fifty one point three sixty three point six seventy-eight point oh and eighty 14.8% even if the virus risk was this age ten to thirty nine or point to 40 plus nor point four fifty plus a hundred percent sixty plus one hundred percent seventy plus a hundred percent an eighty plus a hundred percent it would leave society intact simple brutal but true for in a thousand for the under forties that's all you need to know that lockdown is insane for under 40 this was never an existential threat to society reality check risk of dying from non vices virus causes at eighteen point oh two percent versus Cove in nineteen not point four percent forty five point two percent versus covert nineteen one point two percent close enough seventy-five two percent versus Gover nineteen twelve percent and you have to catch the virus to half those figures apply and be a case sufficient symptoms to warrant treatment and even if everyone was infected call it twenty percent cases and even in Britain with his dodgy numbers C nineteen is just like life there's a risk of dying and it's about the same it seems in fact we showed this working on Hubei figures three four four one that's even at ten times that roughly today's claimed UK deaths normal life is still tens of times more dangerous and know we're busy to be tip their debunking epidemiology we may do deaths later may be normal life 91 times more dangerous page eighteen 444 times at age 45 and two hundred eighteen times at seventy five so let's do a reality check on the sei Emma our model spread with beta equals 1.15 that's Ferguson's two times in five days time for incubation which is one over a more Sigma eight days incubation time for disease one over G or gamma is 12 days diseased number of population 66 million don't sweat the left-hand side that just parameters I need to put into the sei model the figures on the right look reasonable R nought by the way of 14 according to wiki R nought equals beat over gamma R equals 1.15 over 1 over 12 equals 12 times 1.15 because 14 whereas according to covert 19 - R - R nought calm its 1.3 mil the disconnect isn't there between the model in reality and the UK government has the balls to post this on its share website the impact of false information when shared false information can take on a life of its own and have some serious consequences tell me about it it can lead to health scares oh gosh yes like over 19 false accusations gosh yes lockdown and potentially damaging hoax stories yeah covert 19 recently there's been a lot of this kind of false information about corona virus and we've been generating it it's not always easy to spot actually who's sorry it was very easy so use the share checklist to make sure that you don't feed the beast well I haven't checked but I'm sure the government has listed all its own press releases that makes me want to bin the video and just drive my car into 10 Downing Street for over two months we've been dedicated to debunking the lies and nonsense put out my 10 Downing Street head out to the point that it turns out even official epidemiology is BS and they have the temerity to warn us about fake news the hypocrisy is beyond the pale but deep breath get calm whatever so let's check out Sweden you can see why they're so desperate to nail Sweden hell blondes what's not to like no because as a recognised no lockdown country the trolls can't hide behind their whose because of not known even when lockdown hasn't changed a damn thing too late the troll had their get out clause and they used it yep I'd say the model really nailed it very close but wait a minute those log scales might be confusing much better excellent fit where did Sweden go that dark blue roadkill at the bottom of the chart that's reality and it's fitting isn't it reality totally squashed while the UK government has the balls to warn us about fake news so here's their official epidemiologist prime chart modelling covert 19 as legitimately as I can figure out with sensible parameters everyone's infected and reality doesn't even show up yep now I jumped a step probably because of that UK stuff a friend sent us because we really now need to deal with an issue the sei our model and the C dnt model don't really match not directly we do chance like this yeah there's a lot but the main thing is here cases and deaths C and D new daily and total cumulative N&T so you get four lines C dot T total cases blue solid d dot t-- e total deaths red solid cedar n day cases blue dotted d da n day deaths red dotted the s ER model has susceptible not shown boring you ain't got it we get it exposed infected non-infectious infectious and recovered what are we used to cases and deaths what does the media use infected testing cases deaths hospitalised cases used to mean somewhat Wow yeah you got it let's hope it's not too bad and rapidly became confirmed cases fair enough then testing came along already present for confirmed but yeah you got a fever all symptoms make sense to check and now your Chihuahua umpire papaya or was it breadfruit are at risk or testing positive which is my way of saying testing is the load of BS if you're not ill who gives a flying off and get on with your life but it very conveniently adds the narrative oh my God we're all we're all gonna die until the vaccine test is now great one please yet so useful no one tests for flu I noticed kills a bunch flu does hospitalisation would be useful data but it's sporadic not centralised we get cases and deaths from World Health Organisation and that's it and cases either looted by testing deaths are distorted by puffing it's a mess but still discernible as a trajectory and that's all we ever needed the moment we saw the chart beginning to curl it was nice Financial Society was not a risk the crisis was over it was just a matter of letting the contagion burn out or so I thought I would never have dreamed could never have imagined the sheer might and determination of the government to crush democracy including all its fake news and it's extreme hiccup ah crazy in warning us about other fake news and Here I am debunking epidemiologist prize models because it turns out that total BS at least as used in this pandemic and that nobody is standing up and complaining means that their complete BS . charts and epidemiologists both so to properly integrate these two views we need to translate susceptible exposed infectious and recovered into cases and deaths we've already made a start with that the V victim virus line is anyone who's been infected which in the press would be infected unfortunately our models already have infected an infectious as I are and infected not infectious exposed s cir and infected an infectious infectious SE ir there's a lot of eyes already going around we use active and victim to cover a equals E or i exposed or infected aka infected whether incubating or symptomatic and V equals E or I or are infected and active or infected and recovered I anybody who's managed to get it so cases total would originally be reported as anyone with it bad enough to get symptoms and show up at a doctor then it became anybody with such symptoms and confirmed by testing and now it's anyone including your cat and papaya fruit that's tested bottom line the cases total line is going to be a percentage of that virus infected total let's call it 20% frankly these days it's an up in the air number as the government throughout responsible reporting about the same time it started messing with the numbers how difficult is it to mark a cases tested slight versus tested yeah confirmed bad we do have the asymptomatic and symptomatic categories which may loosely correspond to exposed infective non-infectious and infectious infected infectious but even if they were a perfect fit no carriers for example there's another problem those humped curves that look like dailies are totals not day figures ie you don't add each day to get a total curve which is what the Greene recovered line looks like no those are the totals curves what gives unlike a total curve you can leave the exposed state and leave the infectious state that's the whole point of the compartmental model you become exposed it incubates and then you leave exposed and become infectious and then you recover and you leave infectious and become recovered here's our cases and deaths work as reported by World Health Organisation governments in the media and so used by us you become a case and that's it ditto death and I guess hospitalised also you become a new hospitalised person and remain that even when recovered whereas in the sei our model you will linger for eight days if that's the input incubation period being counted in each of those days until you leave the exposed and become infectious and then after twelve days leave that and become recovered so the recovered is the only total that doesn't fall because it defines the endpoint of the s our model guess what you could have a C IRS and become susceptible if you lose immunity naturally scientists are discovering that we may lose immunity quite quickly so yes you couldn't make it up you're going to have to be scared of cave it 19 full time the good news is people get bored in 20 years time people will look back on the being scared of kovat 19 like we look back on flat earth which never existed as a meme people have known the earth was round for a long time or whaling being heroic or burning witches a safe practice in fact that lasts does seem somehow opposite a bizarre and false dogma designed to scare people and the threat was right there amongst them k mid-nineteen agenda the modern witch burning seems opposite somehow but not tudyk I digress so R is recovered and it's a proper non declining total but it isn't the total for cases because once you're exposed you're a case in the modern testing sense and you're definitely a case when you're infectious so we should at least include I and probably e which demonstrates the validity of the ancient wisdom I before E except when it's C so V equals I plus e plus I plus R and C equals 20% times V equals 20% times e plus I plus R add a nice - blue line for 20% of V to get C cases per se ir and are chosen 20% factor and it shows up nicely to million cases in Sweden by 30th of April Wow scary and where's the real Sweden still buried crushed at the bottom how many cases has it had by now Welling to it's punishment regime 37,000 yeah and there's sei are and si are at how in a nutshell population 9.8 million 10 ish cases percent of infected 20 percent so 20 percent of 10 million equals 2 million infected who needs a model that's the absurdity sar se IR s AR D Shi T models in a nutshell they're not problem solvers or calculators or analyser they're parrots can you imagine going to doctor and she goes what seems to be the problem well I have a lump in my breast I see well you have a lump in your breast that will be $200 are you sugaring me yet that's all these models are doing that and giving you some pretty humps but if I wanted pretty humps I just leave that thought and move on to the next topic it's a farce and it's being passed off as science si RS Cir etc are no more than charting tools being passed off as answer givers no you gave it the answers when you said n population equals 9.8 million it just parroted back 9.8 million infected you gave it the answer when you said eight days incubation it just drew a nice eight day hump which reminds me of a time in Bangladesh with but I digress you gave it the answer when you said 12 days disease it just drew our nice 12 day humble and I'll spare you my New York supermodel ball story okay I made that one up you converted it to cases by specifying a 20% case level it just gives us a nice dashed blue line guess what we can add a 1% death rate and what do you figure it'll do gosh deaths will be 1% of impact in so let me guess yep 98 thousand Wow want to see deaths here it is it's the UM redline crushed at the bottom just above the real Swedish cases crushed at the bottom yep very scary well we know the answer to that log scales here you go doesn't look so bad except of course the SCR model is nothing but straight lines up then straight lines across nothing at all like the relatively smooth and natural curve of Chi the real world reality huh go figure and the model predicted parroted back to you 2 million cases whereas in reality has been 37,000 sir only 52 times exaggerated a barely noticeable error simple rounding really and it predicted parroted back to you 98 thousand deaths whereas in reality it's been four thousand three hundred ninety five were working to 31st May data point until next update so 22 times exaggerated and unlike the UK brave Sweden didn't run for their homes no lockdown so the trolls have to sit there and come up with another problem or just resort to this is garbage because hey if you don't like the facts and can't find a floor you can always just insult the work or the people I do love trolls and model so good that it crushes reality and it does have one remarkable thing in its favour it's so absurdly exaggerated that gates it out milked it and are still milking it and nobody you and me knows how bad it really is so that's floor number four it doesn't even come close to mirroring reality and heck number five it's a parrot not a discovery machine or analytical engine it just gives you back pretty lines for the figures you already knew when you entered the numbers five floors any one of which should have been enough to see these models stillborn eradicate it laughed out of the scientific arena and yet remarkably an entire scientific realm relies on them as their primary analytical engine if a doctor just parroted back what you said or a lawyer or even your friend isn't that irritating as a kid when all they do is repeat your words then it would be laughed out as science and their cushy sign occurs paid for by us would be over I cannot believe that I'm actually having to do this I could never have imagined it was this bad I thought it was gates in Ferguson lying it's far worse it's the entire epidemiology hooked on crack a crackpot model that isn't even a model it's a graphics engine for Christ's sake put in the numbers it gives you pretty charts it does not tell you anything you didn't know already population 9.8 million infected 9.8 million cases twenty percent cases twenty percent of 9.8 million deaths 1% dearths 1% of 9.8 million why bother with the model and that rather answers itself can you imagine if the UK CMO had stood up and said well I put the population of the UK into PowerPoint and said everyone would be infected in 20% would be badly infected 1% would die and here's my picture the first question would be what there then it would be where did those numbers come from your Noddy da deal and imagination apparently yes and the whole thing would have been a government rockin scandal instead because it was the model the mysterious black box that only arcane and expert epidemiologists could possibly understand it was accepted as fact and we lost democracy and went into lockdown and even I shied away from their model assuming it must be good in the gayson Ferguson had lied yep I was scared of those differential relations that define it till I realise hang on a minute it's just today's cases equals total cases times 3 you get the idea it wasn't hard it just looked scary but we'll do that another time for now here's the five fatal flaws that mean these models should have been laughed out of science as the most shameful absurdities not fit to share hall space with true genius like string theory electromagnetics quantum theory this is snake oil not science 5 fatal flaws of the SI are sei our family of models you put in the population that's the under percent infected by definition the infection rate is exponential no virus is exponential the model has no conception of distance the whole population is right there ready to be infected it doesn't come close to reflecting reality even for punish sweetness off 50 times in cases 20 times in deaths it's a power not unanswered discoverer more a flaw number one every key answer is provided by you the user you know what scares me the most daring to question the models might be even worse than daring to question lockdown gosh can't have that bye-bye no more Channel but am I wrong this is a nitpicking and it's not rocket science it's pretty fundamental if the reason we were threatened with 53 million infected is because when you put 66 million in it it automatically spits out 66 million duh hang on yep the model is even worse than the famous 80 percent but there's a figure you really need to see but enough for now the tragedy isn't that the SI R sei our models are inappropriate y equals two times X is a perfectly good model for something maybe teaching your kids arithmetic or algebra the tragedy is that an entire world of scientists renowned epidemiologist virologist seem to think that the sei sorry si R sei our family models are Oracle's the way that eg a finance calculator gives you the answer as to how much it will cost you to own that car the SI r SE io models are not Oracle's they give you answers you already knew population 9.8 million infected 9.8 million cases 20 percent cases 20 percent deaths 1% deaths one percent pretty lines curves and charts and nothing else you have to decide what the answers are and then you get to tell the world how scary that is instead of telling the world how stupid your model is well you are for believing it unless you're smart enough not to believe it just to use it are we done not even close though how deep we bury the knife before we get bored I have no idea I had no idea the official world of Epidemiology would be so absurd I have no idea how much time I'm gonna spend debunking em but hey it got us into lockdown ended democracy and has left us with stupefying absurdity in every store in our daily lives so yeah I've probably got the time and energy for one or two more at least I'm Andrew Mather a 60 year old Brit mathematician financier technologist husband biker pilot healer whatever feel free to get in touch Andrew @ peerless reeds
