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We go into more detail on the nature of the SEIR model and its flaws. PDF https://peerlessreads.s3.us-east-2.am...
Transcript by google so i apologise for the spelling mistakes
epidemiology in the doc part to their core model is so very wrong sei R is a core epidemiology model appropriate covert 19 as it has the e element for exposed to handle viruses with an incubation period that is the only thing it has going for it note to sensors we use only government data if you have a problem with the results speak to the government we've seen the core problem with the S series of models si si is Cir si RDS IRI okay I made the last one up but a Serious e it's a virus spreading like wildfire and I cringe every time I hear someone asking it to do something for them check out Jack C great fun film and Oso apposite it's a dial in and your population now we're back to the virus and everyone gets infected and the second problem is they get it very fast cuz guess what it's exponential but first before I show us Cir charts the model that is most appropriate for Cove in nineteen it has an incubation period how do I know I didn't just get the maths wrong given the importance of what we're doing unbelievably debunking epidemiologist prime model we need to be absolute sure that I haven't implemented the model incorrectly here's an S Cir from ID model or go great site and an SI our model from Wikipedia who didn't have a graphic Fair Cir ha here's the charts close up and we can use the lack of sei our own wiki to illustrate the difference s Cir has an extra curve for e go figure in the sei Arkansas in the SI our model you're infected and infectious the sei our model you can be infected but not infectious exposed equals infected but not infectious infectious equals infectious or infected and infectious whatever bottom line exposed equals incubation period now you may have heard that people can die from covid nineteen well that's covered in the SAS IRD model and people die and are born and that's vital dynamics and you can have maternal immunity as a newborn so MSI are there whether M is for mother maternal measles yup and parenting that's what it applies to you'll have to check the article the point is there's a whole family of chance but it doesn't matter how many add-ons you apply if the core principle is messed up and a model that says please enter your population size thank you yep everyone's got it that's messed up want to see if one guy on the Isle of Wight population hundred forty five thousand can infect the planet even with the Isle of Wight surrounded by a ring of fire a no-go zone and irradiated for good measure please enter your population size seven billion thank you yup everyone's got it no wonder lockdown didn't work it was using this model that was a joke and sigh for the trolls who think one shouldn't joke about such things I do agree when it comes to lockdown its fraudulent nature but hey we nailed that one a long time ago so have these prime time models from the world of Epidemiology and they leap walls of fire to infect everyone regardless just punch in a number no wonder Ferguson got such high figures but more of that and Nan I thought it was his fraud and maybe there's still an element that was but when I punched in sensible numbers for Kobe at 19 guess what I got Ferguson's numbers close enough we'll see that so whatever misty's he may have done it isn't just Ferguson which reminds me a news report shows a guy driving the wrong way down a motorway freeway worried a guy calls his brother to warn him his brother replies it's not just one guy it's everybody it's not just Ferguson making up absurd figures it's everybody even not fit costly definitely on our side or the side of saying he showed an SE an SI R or sei our model for herd immunity or whatever that chart was addressing the entire of epidemiology is messed up because they forgot the one cardinal rule of data and modelling garbage in garbage out and I'm not OCD and most things but when it comes to thinking analysis well it's not quite the right complaint the input and the out are irrelevant if the black box is junk how do you know it's junk sensible in garbage out that's not the inputs fault that's the model and that's what freaked me out a lot of the stuff I'm going to be covering in these videos year were debunking an entire scientific one practice sector the whole of Epidemiology is messed up because they're irresponsible and using four models now no model is nonsense provided you understand its limitations a chainsaw is a shitty steak knife so again is it the models fault that every epidemiologist uses it badly this is the mother of all class lawsuits every citizen of every nation against every epidemiologist and since they're not the deep pockets that's every government that's funding them to talk nonsense scare you into your homes and damage your life and society Aaron where are you still we need a sanity check to make sure that the sei our model I've implemented on Excel rather easily actually not being immodest we'll show you later is accurate well using a trick we use to reverse engineer Ferguson's 510 thousand deaths info graphic we remove the white background and create a transparent version of the official sei R then we overlay theirs and ours to see if my model generates the same curves as their model so just overlaying the transparency on our current display we can see there were same sort of animal but it's not exact can we do better we've got four parameters to define the curves of which two are essentially fixed the external sei our model is an eight-day incubation and we need to match that and the population is just an arbitrary constant so we use a hundred thousand that leaves two parameters for spreading duration of the disease I portion so juggling spread gives us a higher orange Everson's green eye which we want and juggling the disease duration adjust the height of the green portion juggling those I get this and you know what I think it's clear we're on the same page so yes my spreadsheet version is a reasonable and legitimate a Cir model now before we do our take now let's just get things in sync for later when we compare to the UK so I'm just gonna match the sei our cases which doesn't exist yet to the UK cases as shown just skewing the date of the base a bit that and switch the colours a little green for a covered grey for susceptible and we reserved blue for cases and red for deaths to be consistent with our standard charts the parameters been set to reasonable ones for Co V 19 1.15 spread doubling every five days per Ferguson eight days incubation twelve days two Z's 66 million population we actually aren't trying to match his model the very nature of this model is what's on trial but we might as well have familiar figures let's ditch the susceptible you ain't got it fine and go logarithmic now what do we know about straight lines other than horizontal constants unlock scales they're exponential it's an if and only if which means it cuts both ways climbing straight exponential exponential climbing straight epidemiologist premier model is an exponential model and what do we know about covid 19 is a contagion it's not exponential nice going epidemiology Ferguson says it's not exponential in its infamous ICC RT report 9 it's long normal and yeah it really is check out our video killing exponential or some such flattening the curve The Guardian in the US CDC normal no doubt for info graphics sake and convenience or god forbid because it is pretty much normal definitely not exponential Thomas player on South Korea arch agenda guy but sure that ain't exponential normal close enough again a near perfect fit for Lord Loblaw as we'll see who Bay cases and deaths both normal with slightly fat tails I can live with that once the crisis is over who cares what tale looks like everyone with male hormones different conversation South Korea normal or log normal to take your pick but we've long said the log normal in South Korea is a work of art and all the charts recovered in new style of chart with auto fitted normal's and they work to treat its so absolutely not exponential that anyone using that word in connection with covid 19 should be slang in jail for public safety automatic 7 days back in if you do it again increasing exponentially 49 343 2401 days and yet their prime model se IR is exponential maybe build a lot of J's jail cells because there's a whole industry or whatever of epidemiologists on comfy government paychecks and for what they've done being utterly ignorant about their own model and it's used to falsely represent covert 19 and to get us into lockdown and out of democracy yes some jail time would be salutary so that's strike two strike one is tell me your population 66 million oh that 66 million infected 330 million oh that's thriller 30 million infected seven billion are at 7 billion infected ring a fire around the only coil coated 19 infected on the planet seven billion infected strike Terry's epidemiology is the only place on the planet and this model the only class of models within epidemiology which are so dumb or arrogant that they ignore reality and implement exponential if you want to get off in private over a virus sweeping the planet exponentially fine not a problem if you want us to give up democracy because you wouldn't face reality you need jail time SEI are says everyone gets infected and some or a lot then bike has escaped at 19 not the common cold and it all happens exponentially aka a complete crock of shape if scientists want to use a navigation app that took them to Edinburgh regardless of the destination their input good for them sounds dumb to me but that would be a lot more sane than a model that doesn't model reality especially given that damage they've caused and the carp launch they've given the elite to strip us of our rights our freedom our money house you owning doing while government worker heroes are on full pay gosh lucky them hey never mind the death stuffing the sweet and punishing the UK sideways no peak today the power centre scam hit hundred times worse than the Far East the failure of lockdown epidemiologist prime model is just one big fat lie and that's criminal we're not done not even close but that seems like a good point and this part and release parts one and two so you've got some real fact checkable stuff to get your teeth into Bill Gates and Ferguson aren't off the hook the entire of Epidemiology and virology is on the hook when they're massively publicised core model is built on two lies it doesn't predict it just gives your population back as infected and it's exponential when no virus certainly not okay with nineteen is exponential then it's time to have every epidemiologist call to account to shut down their cushy research place and funding we paid for their researchers taxpayers and we're paying for their carelessness and irresponsibility as citizens deprived of our rights our democracy our humanity our freedom bad science funded by government used to do untold damage that to me says jail and soon I'm Andrew Mather a six year old Brett mathematician financial technologist husband bike a pilot healer whatever feel free to get in touch and repair the streets calm
