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We've belatedly got around to looking at the core Epidemiology models (SIR, SEIR), and are astonished and disappointed to find that they're utter nonsense. They should never have been put to any use other than keeping epidemiologists safely away from politicians. As it is, epidemiology's failure makes it 'prime cause' when it comes to finding who to blame for shutting down our democracies. Even Gates and Ferguson are less stand-out to-blame characters. They are joined by a lot of official professors who relied on an model that is total BS. PDF https://peerlessreads.s3.us-east-2.am...
Transcript by google amednded by moi
epidemiology in the doc part one Bill Gates and Ferguson have company it turns out the problem wasn't just them it was every epidemiologist on the planet their entire science turns out to be fraudulent and yeah that's a big deal note two sensors we use only government data if you have a problem with the results speak to the government I found this to be utterly disturbing once I realised what I was on to logically I ought to feel thrilled at the discovery but it's like discovering that gravity is a lie or if not that bad then gee how about democracy is a lie yeah that was pretty shattering - ironic or not that they're connected if there is a Nobel Prize for debunking bad science then this video would be a contender it's as simple as that and because it will likely only be watched by my hardcore viewers I want to ensure that you get to share this with me properly without being freaked out by the language what if every mobile phone navigator app consistently took you to the wrong place how long do you think it would be before people noticed and started posting online the premiere models for epidemic modeling the sir and sei our models are utterly and deeply flawed and nobody noticed not even when they gave us the BS about five hundred thirty thousand UK deaths and 80% infected I blamed Bill Gates for his exponential lie I blamed Ferguson for his fraudulent 80% and five hundred and ten thousand five hundred thirty thousand has reported after the March 3rd press conference deaths it turns out like i-Robot I was blaming the wrong people or thing you really can get those figures and frighteningly easy using the official epidemic models we'll get to that in a moment and nobody noticed they were insane that hasn't changed what has changed is that I assumed that Bill Gates was consciously lying and that Ferguson had consciously misrepresented the figures from whatever model he used now it turns out they may both have accurately represented a model that should never have been allowed to exist it really is that bad, but guess what it's the official premiere model for tat pandemic modelling go check it out si our model of infectious disease even nuked Vic offski who's spoken so much common sense had a slide of this model in one of his presentations and heard immunity of course relies on it and it's total BS which means epidemiology is total BS, because they never noticed which means that while Bill Gates may have an agenda and Ferguson may indeed have followed orders in two specific regards, they didn't do anything that would be challenged by another epidemiologist because they referenced a standard model and got standard results and they were BS not because they cheated but because the model itself is BS we'd already said that we're in this crisis to a degree because lazy epidemiologists used the exponential term in a way that left it wide open to be used by propagandists for the scare model of the covid 19 threat it was worse than that we'd always said if the government said it would be 8000 degrees outside tomorrow stay indoors would you have complied or would your common sense experience have told you that something was amiss the government would be a laughingstock unless a nuclear war started in which case it wouldn't really matter this time they warned us of a biological nuclear war and because people aren't virologists or epidemiologists and because virologists and epidemiologists love their models the whole world accepted the word of the epidemiologists and the epidemiologists accepted the output of their models and nobody thought to apply a common sense check except people like us who weren't familiar with their models and didn't care you just needed to look at the CDC death rates to know this wasn't an existential threat you just needed to see that who may worst hit problems in China with 50 people only had 30 85 deaths - no this wasn't an existential threat so he never needed the models and so never checked them out not properly not till now why now because something niggled me about our normal charts too many of them had tails like these and I couldn't see countries like Turkey being part of the agenda falsifying or exaggerating cases or deaths to encourage us to believe that there would be no normal till the vaccine too many, so what in fact if it was normal the UK is superficially similar for that growth decline tracks sideways a peak the virus has no means a monitoring peak that politicians do Sweden likewise the virus doesn't know that Sweden is a poster child for no lockdown but politicians do I don't want to falsely accuse Turkey Austria and all those other nations nor do I want to let the people punishing Sweden or manipulating the UK off the hook and bear in mind that this does not affect the issue of power centres being here a hundred times harder than the Far East it's just one element and as with any court case we really don't want to have any grounds for dismissal we need to be right in a way that the government does not, it can send us him to lockdown on a whim it's the government we have to be rock-solid in our evidence to challenge that so I went hunting tale which I seem to recall being rather more fun when I was younger but what the heck it brought me to this the sei R model an officially recognised epidemic model and a very sensible one or it seemed to be at least Wikipedia has an excellent piece on compartmental models which is what SI r SC IR s is IR D are all of which basic amount ooh one thing you're susceptible s and you get infected i or infectious or both and sometimes you die the variants are literally just additional or omitted possibilities si R equal susceptible infected recover si equals you don't recover ever age herpes si Rd you recover or die a Cir well and don't cry mean just giving examples to give an idea sei AR and I love the clarity of this websites work is susceptible exposed infectious and recover and yes it has die variance but we don't need that and can incorporate that separately sei R is a good fit for covert 19 because you're exposed you've got it but while it's incubating you're asymptomatic and it's not infectious from you then you become infectious to others and then you recover or die if you include that variant cheerful stuff eh but the killer so to speak thing is as you can see these are serious models okay my bad but seriously yes these are the big-league like Windows and Linux of wards it Linux of virus modelling systems so if they're messed up and nobody's noticed and I mean seriously messed up how messed up is that the good news is you don't have to know the mass to understand the problem I had a whole education thing going but actually it's just not necessary it's disturbingly simple once we've done the biggie we'll do the other B's or maybe go into some detail you mean there's more than one problem with their flagship models oh yeah three off-hand crazy so let me introduce you to the sei more of our model and in fact let's keep it even simpler and use the SI our model you're susceptible you get infected you recover easy enough yes covid it has a deaths risk as well but it's not material to understanding the floor here's the model and again we'll keep it simple and guess what call it exponential cases double every day we're really gonna go for it so what happens you know what exponential looks like racing to the moon we don't even need to chart it 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 seven days in a hundred twenty eight times as many people infected a week later in its 16 thousand three weeks 21 million a month a billion wait a minute we've only got 66 million in the UK Shh five weeks thirty four billion hang on were running up six or seven billion people on the planet shut it six weeks four trillion if we'd had one infected on third of Marsh Boris first big announcement and doubled every day we'd have I don't know what is that nineteen billion five hundred sixty six one hundred billion billion a lot infected by today fifth of June as I write this future so well it isn't really doubling every day but only once every five days perfect since ICC RT report nine which means we've only got four hundred fifty six thousand infected about ninety K cases symptomatic worthy of hospital and four thousand five hundred deaths in our simplistic exponential model but by 30th of June we'll have fourteen million six hundred and five thousand infected and by 31st of July we'll have 1 million seventy three million infected and enjoy your August holiday or not because then we'll have 79 billion infected and that's just the UK wait till it hits the rest of the world now is the remodel really that stupid of course not remember Bill Gates because human to human transmission for respiratory viruses can grow exponentially and if we'd kept on going to work travelling like we were that curve would never Bend until you had the majority of people infected and then a massive number seeking hospital care and lots and lots of deaths if you've seen my other videos you see me lambaste him for that exponentially no it's not exponential and then magically it bends from straight on a log scale implied so he knows his stuff and know exponential doesn't Bend except here's the thing my observations are correct but so his if you believe the model is the darnedest thing but there's cases which we'll discuss in a second on the sei our model it goes straight up exponentially just like Gates said then it curls magically and goes horizontal just like Gates said here's V victim if you like viralized interest' whatever formerly had it or have it for the UK straight up exponential till it magically curves on the last moment just like gates said whatever he may or may not have room is represented other than this particular sentence I have to apologise it was not his invention that it goes up exponentially and then bends that absurdity is on epidemiologists so it turns out that not only were they lazy with language they weren't even being lazy they really had built a model that was exponential and they use it as their flagship model even though no virus grows exponentially a population growth logistic function not exponential or even close real-world charts 214 countries not even close to exponential but their flagship model is exponential and nobody noticed and we'll see how readily it produces Ferguson's numbers hell I produced his numbers putting correct data in and if I'd published that would be me under attack the difference being hopefully just as I didn't rely on the model but looked at the real world hopefully I'd have done that in his shoes but he didn't so he's not off the hook but in this one specific accusation I withdraw it unreservedly any epidemiologist trusting their primary model would have generated numbers similar to those that Ferguson did he may have chosen to ignore who Bay in South Korea he may have been encouraged to publish an egregious estimate he may or may not have been serving an agenda but in this one particular he cannot be accused of fraud he put in legitimate numbers as I did and he got the numbers he got and I got similar from the model the world's primary epidemiological model and it's BS I spared you a great deal of tech stuff which I may do here or may do as a follow-on but the import is profound to say the least imagine relying on a cancer test that was guaranteed to be wrong what kind of medical malpractice use could that lead to their core ideological model is BS from the get-go but why have you spotted the floor other than the nonsense of rising exponentially till everyone is sick and a lot of us died didn't I even use almost that exact phrase to ridicule the falseness of the propaganda I assumed it was a deliberate falsehood propaganda no it was an absurd model that nobody spotted is absurd until now and I can show you the floor built into the model from the outset and it's breathtakingly simple here's another sei our forecast with seven billion victims the whole world infected by covert 19 did I manipulate the figures as input in false figures no I put in N equals seven billion that's what you're supposed to do d s by DT equals minus B is over n don't sweat it just n is one of the required parameters of the model it's the population at risk so wait a minute you put in the population of eg your country and it uses that figure to tell you that everyone in your country gets infected is that it is that what you're telling me believe it or not yes their flagship model is everyone gets infected no escape and by the way it happens really fast because it's exponential that isn't just scummy agenda propaganda pushing conspirators who want us all dead that's official mainstream totally legitimate epidemiological modelling totally authorised by every epidemiologist virologist and it's total BS let's just show have the SATs with a simple thought experiment well population seven billion keep that as it is contagion starts in the Isle of Wight population a hundred and forty five thousand one person two four eight whatever use our simple rapid exponential or slow it doesn't matter seven billion people at risk N equals seven billion how many people get infected and fall victim to the virus seven billion now here's the thing and it's funny how that works out I've been meaning to do a thing on the only effective strategy this is blatantly or obviously effective in all the data I've seen and it's not locked down or social distancing it's blockade 34 provinces in China who Bay got 84 percent two cases 96 percent of deaths everyone else got basically zip nada Nick's not worth mentioning that's the kind of isolation that works the virus doesn't have air miles humans do no air travel no visitors in or out not to a home but to a country or region at all and did any country other than China implement that u.s. 50 states easy cities towns villages easy no they chose the harshest granularity smallest stay in your home and still let you travel if you had to priceless they rendered ineffective the one thing that China proved unequivocally was effective and implemented something that turned out to be utterly ineffective way to go Boris but back to the island white population 145 thousand and I forgot to mention it's under blockade and religious law prevents Islanders travelling and there's a sea of burning fire preventing visitors in or out how many victims does ser predict n equal 7 billion victims equals 7 billion how the hell did the virus get off the island it's in the small print do not use except for tightly packed homogeneous populations ALS's BS only it doesn't say it quite like that did a pity me virologists remember the small print know if there's an outbreak in London how fast will the virus get to Edinburgh intercity by plane 45 minutes a blockade and be without blockade it's still a challenge why that do you think they invented this social distancing nonsense 500 miles away is a big social distance ask the SMP just like a fire the virus fails if it can't jump the gap and miles are more than 2 meters the moment someone to apply one of these premium epidemic models to anything bigger than a rave party it's a complete waste of space which recalls the diamond princess with a ship compact crowded the perfect viral heaven and it still only managed 20% infected but the primary model of epidemiologist says a hundred percent infected every time brilliant believe me I'm gonna be double checking triple checking and checking again and again because I cannot believe something so fundamental can be so flawed but it boils down to this Sciences most revered model for epidemic modelling says how many people are we talking about in your population okay fine give me a sec there they're all infected next please that isn't modelling that's arithmetic all BS and you're a call 80% infected wait till you see where that comes from that's it for now don't bother trolling this was a layman's introduction will be going into serious detail in further presentations if your desire to troll survives the science well go ahead always a pleasure to respond I'm Andrew Mather are sixty year old Brit mathematician financier technologist husband biker pilot healer whatever, feel free to get in touch Andrew peerless reads or Andrew a Mather either should get to me
